Tempus: big bid is brewing if a rival has the bottle

The share-price performance of SABMiller yesterday was an interesting one. The world’s second-biggest brewer came in with some disappointing figures for the second quarter to end-September.

It is a moot point whether these were the result of one-off factors, mainly weather-related, or indicative of a negative trend. Either way, you might have expected the price to fall, which indeed it did in early trading in London.

Once New York opened, it shot up, settling 40p ahead at £32.90. The explanation reflects the paradox in SABMiller’s share price. The worse the company does, the higher the expectations that Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s biggest brewer, will finally screw up its courage and bid.

Should SABMiller’s key markets turn positive again, or Alan Clark, its chief executive, pull